Food exporters have doubts

       Food exporters remain unsure whether the Thai and world economies have bottomed out, as revived purchase orders for Thai foods are mostly short-term.
       "Purchase orders for the food sector until the year-end are still relatively small,with most of them made just for about two months in advance," said Paiboon Ponsuwanna, chairman of the food industry club of the Federation of Thai Industries, at a seminar on Thailand's agro-food economic outlook held yesterday.
       "Advance purchase orders should be for a longer term and sustainable if the world's economy has bottomed out."
       Short-term purchase orders have tended to prevent food operators and exporters from planning their production in the longer term, he said.
       Improved demand from new markets has failed to offset sluggish sales in key markets such as the United States, Europe, Japan and Asean, he added.
       In the first six months of this year,Thailand shipped food products worth 354.96 billion baht -6.6% less than in the first half of 2008- and imports fell 13% to 107.40 billion baht.
       Food exports this year are now projected to shrink by about 7.2% from 722 billion baht last year, an improvement from earlier forecasts of a 14-15% contraction, he said.
       "Thailand's food exports remain in good shape compared with the figures in 2007," said Mr Paiboon.
       "The performance would be negative if we compared it with that of last year,when exports saw phenomenal growth as the sector was driven by speculation on fears of food and energy shortage."
       Dr Olarn Chaipravat, an honorary adviser to the Fiscal Policy Research Institute Foundation, said Thailand's future policy needs a better understanding of the interconnections between the prices of oil, agricultural commodities and financial assets.
       "For Thailand's policy framework over 10 to 15 years, it is essential to study demand for alternative energy, the increase of the world's population, climate change, as well as a new mechanism to raise income of Thai farmers," he said.